Boom and bust in Asia

　　亞洲的興衰

　　Going for growth

　　謀求經(jīng)濟發(fā)展

　　Explaining Asias economic success is as easy asone, two, three

　　亞洲經(jīng)濟成功的秘訣用三點就足以概括

　　Jul 13th 2023 |From the print edition

　　How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the Worlds Most Dynamic Region. By Joe Studwell.Grove;

　　《亞洲是如何運作的論全球最具活力地區(qū)的成與敗》，Joe Studwell 著。

　　IN 1989 John Williamson, a British economist in Washington, DC, listed ten economic policiesthat enjoyed the backing of the IMF, the World Bank and many of their clients in LatinAmerica. Whatever the merits of these policies, the Washington consensus, as he called it,proved badly named. Its prescriptionsstabilise, privatise and liberalisehave caused no endof controversy. Almost 25 years later, they get another drubbing in Joe Studwellsprovocative new book, How Asia Works.

　　1989年，英國經(jīng)濟學家 John Williamson 在華盛頓提出了十條經(jīng)濟政策，受到了國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行以及拉丁美洲多國的支持這也就是他所謂的華盛頓共識。事實證明，無論這些政策有何種優(yōu)點，都遠遠算不上什么共識。共識指出要采取穩(wěn)定化、私有化和自由化的措施，由此引發(fā)了無數(shù)爭議。大約二十五年后的今天，Joe Studwell 推出了一本措辭激進的新書《亞洲是如何運作的》。在這本書里，Williamson 的這些經(jīng)濟政策又一次被批駁得體無完膚。

　　But Mr Studwells own manifesto for economic success does resemble the Washingtonconsensus in one respect: it holds that poor economies can prosper by following a shortrecipe of tried and tested policies. This is now an unfashionable approach amongeconomists, who have turned their attention from policies to institutions: the social andpolitical constraints that weigh on ministers, whatever policies they avow. Most authors shyaway from prescriptions for success, arguing that every development dish is different.

　　然而，就某方面而言，Studwell 本人對經(jīng)濟成功的闡述確實和華盛頓共識有幾分相似之處：他認為貧窮經(jīng)濟體可以把某些經(jīng)過嘗試和考驗的政策當作短期方針，以實現(xiàn)自身的繁榮。可經(jīng)濟學者們?nèi)缃癫⒉豢春眠@種途徑，已經(jīng)把目光從政策轉(zhuǎn)向了體制方面：因為無論政界高官支持何種政策，社會和政治方面的約束總是會讓他們裹足不前。很多作家都認為每個國家或地區(qū)的發(fā)展模式都是與眾不同的，不愿意寫書來闡述什么經(jīng)濟成功之道。

　　Mr Studwell has no such inhibitions. Asias post-war miracle economies emerged, he argues,by following a recipe with just three ingredients: land reform; export-led, state-backedmanufacturing; and financial repression.

　　Studwell 卻沒有這種顧慮。他認為，有些亞洲經(jīng)濟體在戰(zhàn)后奇跡般地崛起了，而它們成功的秘訣歸根結(jié)底無非就是三點：一是土地改革;二是由出口帶動、由國家支持的制造業(yè);三是金融抑制政策。

　　The process began with the ousting of the landlords. Feudal estates were broken up anddivided among small farmers, who also received cheap credit and valuable advice.Smallholder farming requires grotesque amounts of labour, Mr Studwell concedes. But thatis a good thing, because countries as poor as Taiwan or South Korea were in the 1950s havelabourand only labourin abundance.

　　這些經(jīng)濟體的崛起是以地主退出歷史舞臺為起點的。封建式的私有地產(chǎn)被沒收并分配給了小農(nóng)戶，同時他們還獲得了低息貸款和寶貴的經(jīng)驗。Studwell 承認，小農(nóng)型耕作需要令人無法想象的大量勞動力。但這不失為一件好事：因為在二十世紀五十年代，像臺灣或是韓國這樣貧窮的地區(qū)擁有大批勞動力除此之外也沒有別的了。

　　Tightly planted, closely tended farms coax the best yields out of each parcel of land. Thisrural bounty then creates room for the next step: export-led manufacturing. The state, MrStudwell argues, must nurse manufacturers through their infancy, helping them to learn howto stand on their own feet. This nurture should, however, be combined with discipline: thestate must oblige firms to export. Foreign sales provide an external test of their progress,allowing the state to cull losers, even if it cannot pick winners.

　　在這些地區(qū)，農(nóng)場上種滿了密密麻麻的作物，又受到了仔細的照料，每一塊地都有很不錯的產(chǎn)量。而后，這種農(nóng)業(yè)上的富庶為亞洲繁榮的下一步創(chuàng)造了空間。Studwell 認為，國家必須在制造業(yè)者尚且處于嬰幼兒期時為它們提供充分的呵護，讓它們學會如何去依靠自身力量實現(xiàn)發(fā)展。然而，在呵護的同時還需要進行約束：國家必須強制要求這些公司進行出口。對外銷量為制造業(yè)者的發(fā)展提供了一種外在的衡量尺度，讓國家得以淘汰弱者即便是在無法挑選出強者的情況下。

　　The final secret of Asian success, Mr Studwell argues, was a cowed financial system. Captivesavers, penned in by capital controls, were ripped off by the banks, which paid low interestrates. This allowed the banks to subsidise industrial firms through their years of education.

　　Studwell 認為，亞洲成功的最后一條秘訣就是那種受到國家鉗制的金融體系。銀行提供的存款利率很低，但儲戶被資本管制所束縛，除了接受銀行的訛詐之外別無選擇。這筆資金讓銀行得以為產(chǎn)業(yè)公司提供了數(shù)年的教育經(jīng)費。

　　Mr Studwells recipe is not original: the formula dates back at least 140 years, he shows,to Japan under the Meiji emperor. Only the first step, smallholder farming, would be backedby this newspaper. But How Asia Works is a striking and enlightening book, whichreflects the authors unusual career. Having worked as an analyst and a consultant, he wrote books on Chinas seductionof foreign businessmen and Asias crony capitalists. Then he went back to school, embarkingon a doctorate at Cambridge, home to a number of unorthodox economists.

　　Studwell 的秘方并非獨開先河。他表示這些成功秘訣至少可以追溯到一百四十年前明治天皇統(tǒng)治下的日本。而本報只對其中的第一步持支持態(tài)度。不過，《亞洲是如何運作的》這本書確實富于啟迪性，讓人耳目一新。它折射了作者不尋常的職業(yè)生涯。Studwell 曾經(jīng)在本報的姊妹公司經(jīng)濟學人信息部擔任過分析人士，也曾經(jīng)從事過咨詢工作。他寫過幾本書，論述過中國對外商的吸引力、以及亞洲的裙帶資本家等等。而后他回到校園攻讀博士學位，進的正是劍橋大學這里有很多不拘傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟學家。

　　The result is a lively mix of scholarship, reporting and polemic. Its heart is a historicalaccount of how smallholder farming, export-led manufacturing and financial repression tookroot in Asias miracle economies, such as Japan and Taiwan, but failed to bed down in thePhilippines and Indonesia. This is punctuated by travelogues, describing Asias landscape ofeconomic triumph and tribulation, from the kitsch houses of rice farmers in Japans Niigataprefecture, who have great agricultural know-how but little architectural taste, to theunfinished towers of Jakartas Bank Alley, their growth stunted by the Asian financial crisis.

　　最終，Studwell 把學術(shù)研究、調(diào)查報道以及書面論戰(zhàn)生動地糅為一體。在一些創(chuàng)造奇跡的亞洲經(jīng)濟體中，小農(nóng)耕作、由出口帶動的制造業(yè)以及金融抑制政策是如何植根的?在菲律賓和印度尼西亞，同樣的措施又為何沒有形成氣候?本書重點從歷史角度論述了這些問題。書中還穿插了一些游記見聞，描述了亞洲大地上經(jīng)濟繁榮或是衰頹的景象：Studwell 寫到了日本新瀉縣稻農(nóng)的簡陋住所這些農(nóng)民有高超的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)，卻不懂什么建筑美學;也寫到了雅加達岸巷里尚未建成的塔樓由于亞洲金融危機，這些塔樓遲遲未能完工。

　　The most impressive part of the book is the 68 pages of footnotes in which Mr Studwell dipsinto his trove of reading and reporting. He includes observations on Javanese chickens, thesex life of a Korean chaebol-founder, the constitutional rules that Meiji-era Japan copiedfrom Prussia and his exchanges with Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysias former strongman.

　　本書讓人印象最為深刻的部分就是長達68頁的腳注。Studwell 讀過很多書，也進行過大量報道，在腳注里他粗略提及了一些。他談到了爪哇人飼養(yǎng)的雞，談到了韓國某個財團創(chuàng)始人的性生活，談到了明治時代日本模仿普魯士設立的憲章，還談到了他和馬來西亞前鐵腕領(lǐng)導人馬哈蒂爾?穆罕默德之間的對話。

　　In these notes, Mr Studwell wanders into the weeds of development . But he never gets lost. The three-step doctrinehe advocates is even shorter than the ten-step Washington consensus he opposes. But it willno doubt prove similarly controversial.

　　在這些腳注中，Studwell 偶爾會提到一些阻礙經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的雜草。但Studwell 從未偏離主題。相比他所反對的十步走式華盛頓共識，他本人提倡的三步走主義甚至更為簡略。但毫無疑問，二者都將會充滿爭議。

　　Boom and bust in Asia

　　亞洲的興衰

　　Going for growth

　　謀求經(jīng)濟發(fā)展

　　Explaining Asias economic success is as easy asone, two, three

　　亞洲經(jīng)濟成功的秘訣用三點就足以概括

　　Jul 13th 2023 |From the print edition

　　How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the Worlds Most Dynamic Region. By Joe Studwell.Grove;

　　《亞洲是如何運作的論全球最具活力地區(qū)的成與敗》，Joe Studwell 著。

　　IN 1989 John Williamson, a British economist in Washington, DC, listed ten economic policiesthat enjoyed the backing of the IMF, the World Bank and many of their clients in LatinAmerica. Whatever the merits of these policies, the Washington consensus, as he called it,proved badly named. Its prescriptionsstabilise, privatise and liberalisehave caused no endof controversy. Almost 25 years later, they get another drubbing in Joe Studwellsprovocative new book, How Asia Works.

　　1989年，英國經(jīng)濟學家 John Williamson 在華盛頓提出了十條經(jīng)濟政策，受到了國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行以及拉丁美洲多國的支持這也就是他所謂的華盛頓共識。事實證明，無論這些政策有何種優(yōu)點，都遠遠算不上什么共識。共識指出要采取穩(wěn)定化、私有化和自由化的措施，由此引發(fā)了無數(shù)爭議。大約二十五年后的今天，Joe Studwell 推出了一本措辭激進的新書《亞洲是如何運作的》。在這本書里，Williamson 的這些經(jīng)濟政策又一次被批駁得體無完膚。

　　But Mr Studwells own manifesto for economic success does resemble the Washingtonconsensus in one respect: it holds that poor economies can prosper by following a shortrecipe of tried and tested policies. This is now an unfashionable approach amongeconomists, who have turned their attention from policies to institutions: the social andpolitical constraints that weigh on ministers, whatever policies they avow. Most authors shyaway from prescriptions for success, arguing that every development dish is different.

　　然而，就某方面而言，Studwell 本人對經(jīng)濟成功的闡述確實和華盛頓共識有幾分相似之處：他認為貧窮經(jīng)濟體可以把某些經(jīng)過嘗試和考驗的政策當作短期方針，以實現(xiàn)自身的繁榮。可經(jīng)濟學者們?nèi)缃癫⒉豢春眠@種途徑，已經(jīng)把目光從政策轉(zhuǎn)向了體制方面：因為無論政界高官支持何種政策，社會和政治方面的約束總是會讓他們裹足不前。很多作家都認為每個國家或地區(qū)的發(fā)展模式都是與眾不同的，不愿意寫書來闡述什么經(jīng)濟成功之道。

　　Mr Studwell has no such inhibitions. Asias post-war miracle economies emerged, he argues,by following a recipe with just three ingredients: land reform; export-led, state-backedmanufacturing; and financial repression.

　　Studwell 卻沒有這種顧慮。他認為，有些亞洲經(jīng)濟體在戰(zhàn)后奇跡般地崛起了，而它們成功的秘訣歸根結(jié)底無非就是三點：一是土地改革;二是由出口帶動、由國家支持的制造業(yè);三是金融抑制政策。

　　The process began with the ousting of the landlords. Feudal estates were broken up anddivided among small farmers, who also received cheap credit and valuable advice.Smallholder farming requires grotesque amounts of labour, Mr Studwell concedes. But thatis a good thing, because countries as poor as Taiwan or South Korea were in the 1950s havelabourand only labourin abundance.

　　這些經(jīng)濟體的崛起是以地主退出歷史舞臺為起點的。封建式的私有地產(chǎn)被沒收并分配給了小農(nóng)戶，同時他們還獲得了低息貸款和寶貴的經(jīng)驗。Studwell 承認，小農(nóng)型耕作需要令人無法想象的大量勞動力。但這不失為一件好事：因為在二十世紀五十年代，像臺灣或是韓國這樣貧窮的地區(qū)擁有大批勞動力除此之外也沒有別的了。

　　Tightly planted, closely tended farms coax the best yields out of each parcel of land. Thisrural bounty then creates room for the next step: export-led manufacturing. The state, MrStudwell argues, must nurse manufacturers through their infancy, helping them to learn howto stand on their own feet. This nurture should, however, be combined with discipline: thestate must oblige firms to export. Foreign sales provide an external test of their progress,allowing the state to cull losers, even if it cannot pick winners.

　　在這些地區(qū)，農(nóng)場上種滿了密密麻麻的作物，又受到了仔細的照料，每一塊地都有很不錯的產(chǎn)量。而后，這種農(nóng)業(yè)上的富庶為亞洲繁榮的下一步創(chuàng)造了空間。Studwell 認為，國家必須在制造業(yè)者尚且處于嬰幼兒期時為它們提供充分的呵護，讓它們學會如何去依靠自身力量實現(xiàn)發(fā)展。然而，在呵護的同時還需要進行約束：國家必須強制要求這些公司進行出口。對外銷量為制造業(yè)者的發(fā)展提供了一種外在的衡量尺度，讓國家得以淘汰弱者即便是在無法挑選出強者的情況下。

　　The final secret of Asian success, Mr Studwell argues, was a cowed financial system. Captivesavers, penned in by capital controls, were ripped off by the banks, which paid low interestrates. This allowed the banks to subsidise industrial firms through their years of education.

　　Studwell 認為，亞洲成功的最后一條秘訣就是那種受到國家鉗制的金融體系。銀行提供的存款利率很低，但儲戶被資本管制所束縛，除了接受銀行的訛詐之外別無選擇。這筆資金讓銀行得以為產(chǎn)業(yè)公司提供了數(shù)年的教育經(jīng)費。

　　Mr Studwells recipe is not original: the formula dates back at least 140 years, he shows,to Japan under the Meiji emperor. Only the first step, smallholder farming, would be backedby this newspaper. But How Asia Works is a striking and enlightening book, whichreflects the authors unusual career. Having worked as an analyst and a consultant, he wrote books on Chinas seductionof foreign businessmen and Asias crony capitalists. Then he went back to school, embarkingon a doctorate at Cambridge, home to a number of unorthodox economists.

　　Studwell 的秘方并非獨開先河。他表示這些成功秘訣至少可以追溯到一百四十年前明治天皇統(tǒng)治下的日本。而本報只對其中的第一步持支持態(tài)度。不過，《亞洲是如何運作的》這本書確實富于啟迪性，讓人耳目一新。它折射了作者不尋常的職業(yè)生涯。Studwell 曾經(jīng)在本報的姊妹公司經(jīng)濟學人信息部擔任過分析人士，也曾經(jīng)從事過咨詢工作。他寫過幾本書，論述過中國對外商的吸引力、以及亞洲的裙帶資本家等等。而后他回到校園攻讀博士學位，進的正是劍橋大學這里有很多不拘傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟學家。

　　The result is a lively mix of scholarship, reporting and polemic. Its heart is a historicalaccount of how smallholder farming, export-led manufacturing and financial repression tookroot in Asias miracle economies, such as Japan and Taiwan, but failed to bed down in thePhilippines and Indonesia. This is punctuated by travelogues, describing Asias landscape ofeconomic triumph and tribulation, from the kitsch houses of rice farmers in Japans Niigataprefecture, who have great agricultural know-how but little architectural taste, to theunfinished towers of Jakartas Bank Alley, their growth stunted by the Asian financial crisis.

　　最終，Studwell 把學術(shù)研究、調(diào)查報道以及書面論戰(zhàn)生動地糅為一體。在一些創(chuàng)造奇跡的亞洲經(jīng)濟體中，小農(nóng)耕作、由出口帶動的制造業(yè)以及金融抑制政策是如何植根的?在菲律賓和印度尼西亞，同樣的措施又為何沒有形成氣候?本書重點從歷史角度論述了這些問題。書中還穿插了一些游記見聞，描述了亞洲大地上經(jīng)濟繁榮或是衰頹的景象：Studwell 寫到了日本新瀉縣稻農(nóng)的簡陋住所這些農(nóng)民有高超的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)，卻不懂什么建筑美學;也寫到了雅加達岸巷里尚未建成的塔樓由于亞洲金融危機，這些塔樓遲遲未能完工。

　　The most impressive part of the book is the 68 pages of footnotes in which Mr Studwell dipsinto his trove of reading and reporting. He includes observations on Javanese chickens, thesex life of a Korean chaebol-founder, the constitutional rules that Meiji-era Japan copiedfrom Prussia and his exchanges with Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysias former strongman.

　　本書讓人印象最為深刻的部分就是長達68頁的腳注。Studwell 讀過很多書，也進行過大量報道，在腳注里他粗略提及了一些。他談到了爪哇人飼養(yǎng)的雞，談到了韓國某個財團創(chuàng)始人的性生活，談到了明治時代日本模仿普魯士設立的憲章，還談到了他和馬來西亞前鐵腕領(lǐng)導人馬哈蒂爾?穆罕默德之間的對話。

　　In these notes, Mr Studwell wanders into the weeds of development . But he never gets lost. The three-step doctrinehe advocates is even shorter than the ten-step Washington consensus he opposes. But it willno doubt prove similarly controversial.

　　在這些腳注中，Studwell 偶爾會提到一些阻礙經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的雜草。但Studwell 從未偏離主題。相比他所反對的十步走式華盛頓共識，他本人提倡的三步走主義甚至更為簡略。但毫無疑問，二者都將會充滿爭議。