语料库-提供经典范文,文案句子,常用文书,您的写作得力助手

Russia and the West: Where did it all go wrong?

雕龍文庫 分享 時間: 收藏本文

Russia and the West: Where did it all go wrong?

It is hard to imagine a period since the end of the Cold War when relations between Russia and the United States have been quite so bad.

US officials have described the joint Russian-Syrian onslaught against Aleppo as "barbarism" and warned that war crimes are being carried out.

The Russian president has spoken explicitly about the worsening climate between Washington and Moscow, insisting that what the Obama administration wants is "diktat" rather than dialogue.

For all that, the US and Russia are still in contact over Syria. For all the harsh rhetoric and accusations, they both realise that they have a vital role to play in any eventual settlement of the Syrian drama.

Whatever its immediate strategic intentions, a permanent war in Syria doesn't benefit Moscow any more than Washington.

But without that basic level of trust and understanding between them, any dialogue rests upon shaky foundations. It was never supposed to be like this. The end of the Cold War was supposed to usher in a new era.

For a time Russia retreated from the world stage, but now it is back with a vengeance, eager to consolidate its position nearer home; to restore something of its former global role and to make up for perceived slights perpetrated by the West.

So where did it all go wrong? Why were Russia and the West unable to forge a different type of relationship? Who is to blame? Was it US over-reach and insensitivity, or Russia's nostalgia for Soviet greatness? Why have things now got so bad and is it correct to describe the present state of affairs as a "new Cold War"?

I am not going to try to give a comprehensive answer to all these questions - the intricacies of this story would require a book the length of Tolstoy's War and Peace! But I am going to try to throw out some pointers.

For Paul R Pillar, a senior fellow at the Centre for Security Studies at Georgetown University and a former senior CIA officer, the initial fault lies with the West.

"The relationship went wrong when the West did not treat Russia as a nation that had shaken off Soviet Communism," he told me. "It should have been welcomed as such into a new community of nations - but instead it was regarded as the successor state of the USSR, inheriting its status as the principal focus of Western distrust."

This original sin, if you like, was compounded by the West's enthusiasm for Nato expansion, first taking in countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, who had long nationalist traditions of struggling against rule from Moscow.

But Nato's expansion didn't end there as it added countries like the three Baltic States, whose territory had been part of the former Soviet Union. Is it any wonder then, the critics ask, that Moscow should baulk also at the idea of Georgia or Ukraine entering the western orbit?

In short, Russia believes that it has been treated unfairly since the end of the Cold War.

This, of course, is not the conventional view in the West, which prefers to focus on Russian "revanchism" - a stance personified by Vladimir Putin, a man who has described the collapse of the Soviet Union as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century.

There is an interesting debate going on among US think tank experts as to which camp is right. Should one focus on the initial strategic errors of the West in dealing with the new Russia, or look at Moscow's more recent assertive behaviour in Georgia, Syria or Ukraine?

Sir John Sawers, the former head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), is also a former UK ambassador to the United Nations and has watched Russian diplomacy unfold over recent years. He prefers to focus on the more recent period.

In a recent BBC interview he said that the West had not paid sufficient attention to building the right strategic relationship with Russia over the last eight years.

"If there was a clear understanding between Washington and Moscow about the rules of the road - that we are not trying to bring down each other's systems - then solving regional problems like Syria or Ukraine or North Korea - which is coming rapidly down the path towards us - would be easier," he said.

Several experts I spoke to also pointed to the flat-footedness of the Obama administration's diplomacy and the mixed signals it has often sent.

Washington's absolute power may be declining, but it has sometimes appeared equivocal about using the variety of levers of power that remain. Is it pivoting towards Asia and to what extent is it really downplaying its role in Europe and the Middle East?

Is it prepared to back up its rhetoric with force? (In Syria the answer has been no.) And has it really thought through the implications of the positions that it has taken towards Moscow?

In 2024, in the wake of Russia's annexation of the Crimea, Mr Putin spoke to the Russian Duma, noting that "if you compress the spring all the way to its limit it will snap back hard. You must remember this", he stressed.

As Nikolas K Gvosdev noted recently on the website of the National Interest - a US policy magazine dedicated to the pragmatic "realist" view of foreign policy - "The prudent response would either be to find ways to de-escalate the pressure on the spring or to prepare for its snapback and to be able to cushion the shock".

Whatever the errors of the past and whoever may be responsible we are, as they say, where we are. And where is that? Are the US and Russia really on the brink of conflict over Syria? I don't think so, but what about the idea of us all entering a "new Cold War"?

Paul Pillar, for one, thinks this is not the right term. "There is not the sort of global ideological competition that characterised the Cold War and fortunately we do not have another nuclear arms race," he told me.

"What is left is great competition for influence and Russia is a power of a lesser order than the Soviet Union was and than the superpower United States still is."

So what of the future? With the US presidential contest looming, Moscow may clearly believe it has a free hand for the time being. And there is evidence that it intends to use it to shape a variety of conflict zones in a manner that presents the next resident of the White House with a fait accompli.

The situation is reminiscent of 2008 when US-Russia relations went into the freezer in the wake of the Russia-Georgia war. This left the Bush administration's policy towards Moscow in a shambles and it is this mess that President Obama inherited.

Remember the famous "reset" of relations with Russia by a secretary of state called Hillary Clinton? Well, that didn't come to much.

Sir John told the BBC that, in his view, "there is a big responsibility on the next US president (and I very much hope it will be Hillary Clinton - he notes) to establish a different sort of relationship. We are not looking for a warmer relationship with Russia and we are not looking for a frostier relationship with Russia", he asserts.

"What we are looking for is a strategic understanding with Moscow about how we provide for global stability, for stability across Europe between Russia and the US, so that the fundamental stability of the world is put on a firmer basis than it has been."

Pax Americana - the American unipolar moment - he notes, "was very short-lived and it is now over".

It is hard to imagine a period since the end of the Cold War when relations between Russia and the United States have been quite so bad.

US officials have described the joint Russian-Syrian onslaught against Aleppo as "barbarism" and warned that war crimes are being carried out.

The Russian president has spoken explicitly about the worsening climate between Washington and Moscow, insisting that what the Obama administration wants is "diktat" rather than dialogue.

For all that, the US and Russia are still in contact over Syria. For all the harsh rhetoric and accusations, they both realise that they have a vital role to play in any eventual settlement of the Syrian drama.

Whatever its immediate strategic intentions, a permanent war in Syria doesn't benefit Moscow any more than Washington.

But without that basic level of trust and understanding between them, any dialogue rests upon shaky foundations. It was never supposed to be like this. The end of the Cold War was supposed to usher in a new era.

For a time Russia retreated from the world stage, but now it is back with a vengeance, eager to consolidate its position nearer home; to restore something of its former global role and to make up for perceived slights perpetrated by the West.

So where did it all go wrong? Why were Russia and the West unable to forge a different type of relationship? Who is to blame? Was it US over-reach and insensitivity, or Russia's nostalgia for Soviet greatness? Why have things now got so bad and is it correct to describe the present state of affairs as a "new Cold War"?

I am not going to try to give a comprehensive answer to all these questions - the intricacies of this story would require a book the length of Tolstoy's War and Peace! But I am going to try to throw out some pointers.

For Paul R Pillar, a senior fellow at the Centre for Security Studies at Georgetown University and a former senior CIA officer, the initial fault lies with the West.

"The relationship went wrong when the West did not treat Russia as a nation that had shaken off Soviet Communism," he told me. "It should have been welcomed as such into a new community of nations - but instead it was regarded as the successor state of the USSR, inheriting its status as the principal focus of Western distrust."

This original sin, if you like, was compounded by the West's enthusiasm for Nato expansion, first taking in countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, who had long nationalist traditions of struggling against rule from Moscow.

But Nato's expansion didn't end there as it added countries like the three Baltic States, whose territory had been part of the former Soviet Union. Is it any wonder then, the critics ask, that Moscow should baulk also at the idea of Georgia or Ukraine entering the western orbit?

In short, Russia believes that it has been treated unfairly since the end of the Cold War.

This, of course, is not the conventional view in the West, which prefers to focus on Russian "revanchism" - a stance personified by Vladimir Putin, a man who has described the collapse of the Soviet Union as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century.

There is an interesting debate going on among US think tank experts as to which camp is right. Should one focus on the initial strategic errors of the West in dealing with the new Russia, or look at Moscow's more recent assertive behaviour in Georgia, Syria or Ukraine?

Sir John Sawers, the former head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), is also a former UK ambassador to the United Nations and has watched Russian diplomacy unfold over recent years. He prefers to focus on the more recent period.

In a recent BBC interview he said that the West had not paid sufficient attention to building the right strategic relationship with Russia over the last eight years.

"If there was a clear understanding between Washington and Moscow about the rules of the road - that we are not trying to bring down each other's systems - then solving regional problems like Syria or Ukraine or North Korea - which is coming rapidly down the path towards us - would be easier," he said.

Several experts I spoke to also pointed to the flat-footedness of the Obama administration's diplomacy and the mixed signals it has often sent.

Washington's absolute power may be declining, but it has sometimes appeared equivocal about using the variety of levers of power that remain. Is it pivoting towards Asia and to what extent is it really downplaying its role in Europe and the Middle East?

Is it prepared to back up its rhetoric with force? (In Syria the answer has been no.) And has it really thought through the implications of the positions that it has taken towards Moscow?

In 2024, in the wake of Russia's annexation of the Crimea, Mr Putin spoke to the Russian Duma, noting that "if you compress the spring all the way to its limit it will snap back hard. You must remember this", he stressed.

As Nikolas K Gvosdev noted recently on the website of the National Interest - a US policy magazine dedicated to the pragmatic "realist" view of foreign policy - "The prudent response would either be to find ways to de-escalate the pressure on the spring or to prepare for its snapback and to be able to cushion the shock".

Whatever the errors of the past and whoever may be responsible we are, as they say, where we are. And where is that? Are the US and Russia really on the brink of conflict over Syria? I don't think so, but what about the idea of us all entering a "new Cold War"?

Paul Pillar, for one, thinks this is not the right term. "There is not the sort of global ideological competition that characterised the Cold War and fortunately we do not have another nuclear arms race," he told me.

"What is left is great competition for influence and Russia is a power of a lesser order than the Soviet Union was and than the superpower United States still is."

So what of the future? With the US presidential contest looming, Moscow may clearly believe it has a free hand for the time being. And there is evidence that it intends to use it to shape a variety of conflict zones in a manner that presents the next resident of the White House with a fait accompli.

The situation is reminiscent of 2008 when US-Russia relations went into the freezer in the wake of the Russia-Georgia war. This left the Bush administration's policy towards Moscow in a shambles and it is this mess that President Obama inherited.

Remember the famous "reset" of relations with Russia by a secretary of state called Hillary Clinton? Well, that didn't come to much.

Sir John told the BBC that, in his view, "there is a big responsibility on the next US president (and I very much hope it will be Hillary Clinton - he notes) to establish a different sort of relationship. We are not looking for a warmer relationship with Russia and we are not looking for a frostier relationship with Russia", he asserts.

"What we are looking for is a strategic understanding with Moscow about how we provide for global stability, for stability across Europe between Russia and the US, so that the fundamental stability of the world is put on a firmer basis than it has been."

Pax Americana - the American unipolar moment - he notes, "was very short-lived and it is now over".

主站蜘蛛池模板: 亮化工程,亮化设计,城市亮化工程,亮化资质合作,长沙亮化照明,杰奥思【官网】 | ◆大型吹塑加工|吹塑加工|吹塑代加工|吹塑加工厂|吹塑设备|滚塑加工|滚塑代加工-莱力奇塑业有限公司 | 招商帮-一站式网络营销服务|互联网整合营销|网络推广代运营|信息流推广|招商帮企业招商好帮手|搜索营销推广|短视视频营销推广 | 蓄电池回收,ups电池后备电源回收,铅酸蓄电池回收,机房电源回收-广州益夫铅酸电池回收公司 | 珠海冷却塔降噪维修_冷却塔改造报价_凉水塔风机维修厂家- 广东康明节能空调有限公司 | 硅胶管挤出机厂家_硅胶挤出机生产线_硅胶条挤出机_臣泽智能装备 贵州科比特-防雷公司厂家提供贵州防雷工程,防雷检测,防雷接地,防雷设备价格,防雷产品报价服务-贵州防雷检测公司 | 环讯传媒,永康网络公司,永康网站建设,永康小程序开发制作,永康网站制作,武义网页设计,金华地区网站SEO优化推广 - 永康市环讯电子商务有限公司 | 仿清水混凝土_清水混凝土装修_施工_修饰_保护剂_修补_清水混凝土修复-德州忠岭建筑装饰工程 | 尚为传动-专业高精密蜗轮蜗杆,双导程蜗轮蜗杆,蜗轮蜗杆减速机,蜗杆减速机生产厂家 | 合肥防火门窗/隔断_合肥防火卷帘门厂家_安徽耐火窗_良万消防设备有限公司 | 汝成内控-行政事业单位内部控制管理服务商 | 恒温槽_恒温水槽_恒温水浴槽-上海方瑞仪器有限公司 | 报警器_家用防盗报警器_烟雾报警器_燃气报警器_防盗报警系统厂家-深圳市刻锐智能科技有限公司 | 药品/药物稳定性试验考察箱-埃里森仪器设备(上海)有限公司 | CE认证_产品欧盟ROHS-REACH检测机构-商通检测 | 石膏基自流平砂浆厂家-高强石膏基保温隔声自流平-轻质抹灰石膏粉砂浆批发-永康市汇利建设有限公司 | 卓能JOINTLEAN端子连接器厂家-专业提供PCB接线端子|轨道式端子|重载连接器|欧式连接器等电气连接产品和服务 | 贵州水玻璃_-贵阳花溪闽兴水玻璃厂 | 天津拓展_天津团建_天津趣味运动会_天津活动策划公司-天津华天拓展培训中心 | 胃口福饺子加盟官网_新鲜现包饺子云吞加盟 - 【胃口福唯一官网】 | 刘秘书_你身边专业的工作范文写作小秘书 | 【孔氏陶粒】建筑回填陶粒-南京/合肥/武汉/郑州/重庆/成都/杭州陶粒厂家 | 欧版反击式破碎机-欧版反击破-矿山石料破碎生产线-青州奥凯诺机械 | 动库网动库商城-体育用品专卖店:羽毛球,乒乓球拍,网球,户外装备,运动鞋,运动包,运动服饰专卖店-正品运动品网上商城动库商城网 - 动库商城 | 高速龙门架厂家_监控杆_多功能灯杆_信号灯杆_锂电池太阳能路灯-鑫世源照明 | 定制/定做冲锋衣厂家/公司-订做/订制冲锋衣价格/费用-北京圣达信 | 立式壁挂广告机厂家-红外电容触摸一体机价格-华邦瀛 | 成都竞价托管_抖音代运营_网站建设_成都SEM外包-成都智网创联网络科技有限公司 | 洗地机-全自动/手推式洗地机-扫地车厂家_扬子清洁设备 | 成都网站建设制作_高端网站设计公司「做网站送优化推广」 | 合景一建-无尘车间设计施工_食品医药洁净车间工程装修总承包公司 | 森旺-A级防火板_石英纤维板_不燃抗菌板装饰板_医疗板 | led太阳能路灯厂家价格_风光互补庭院灯_农村市政工程路灯-中山华可路灯品牌 | 钢板仓,大型钢板仓,钢板库,大型钢板库,粉煤灰钢板仓,螺旋钢板仓,螺旋卷板仓,骨料钢板仓 | 济南ISO9000认证咨询代理公司,ISO9001认证,CMA实验室认证,ISO/TS16949认证,服务体系认证,资产管理体系认证,SC食品生产许可证- 济南创远企业管理咨询有限公司 郑州电线电缆厂家-防火|低压|低烟无卤电缆-河南明星电缆 | 乳化沥青设备_改性沥青设备_沥青加温罐_德州市昊通路桥工程有限公司 | 安平县鑫川金属丝网制品有限公司,声屏障,高速声屏障,百叶孔声屏障,大弧形声屏障,凹凸穿孔声屏障,铁路声屏障,顶部弧形声屏障,玻璃钢吸音板 | 杰福伦_磁致伸缩位移传感器_线性位移传感器-意大利GEFRAN杰福伦-河南赉威液压科技有限公司 | 不锈钢列管式冷凝器,换热器厂家-无锡飞尔诺环境工程有限公司 | 水质监测站_水质在线分析仪_水质自动监测系统_多参数水质在线监测仪_水质传感器-山东万象环境科技有限公司 | Eiafans.com_环评爱好者 环评网|环评论坛|环评报告公示网|竣工环保验收公示网|环保验收报告公示网|环保自主验收公示|环评公示网|环保公示网|注册环评工程师|环境影响评价|环评师|规划环评|环评报告|环评考试网|环评论坛 - Powered by Discuz! |