HPs grand vision

　　惠普的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)

　　WHEN the board of HP, the worlds largestcomputer-maker, unveiled plans to restructure, itexpected the companys shares to suffer; but not to crash by 20%. HPs bosses thoughtinvestors would love their plan to spin off the firms low-margin personal-computer business, but be wary of their plan to buy Autonomy, a British software-maker, for ahandsome $10.3 billion. In fact, they hated both ideas. On August 19th, the day after theannouncement, they wiped $12 billion off HPs market value.

　　惠普這個(gè)世界上最大的電腦制造商，在其董事會(huì)公布重組計(jì)劃時(shí)，就曾預(yù)料其股價(jià)將會(huì)下跌，但沒(méi)想到會(huì)跌20%。惠普老板本以為，他們準(zhǔn)備放棄營(yíng)利較低的個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)的計(jì)劃，會(huì)得到投資者的支持;但對(duì)于以天價(jià)收購(gòu)英國(guó)軟件公司Autonomy的計(jì)劃，投資者會(huì)表示出擔(dān)憂。事實(shí)上，投資者對(duì)這兩項(xiàng)計(jì)劃都不買(mǎi)賬。8月19日，就在他們發(fā)出聲明的第二天，惠普的市值便狂跌了112億美元。

　　One problem was that the announcement left unclear what HP wanted to do with its PC unitand why exactly it intends to pay so much for Autonomy. Another factor was that many of thefirms shareholders are short-termists, who were scared away by lowered revenue and profitforecasts. But the big problem is that Lo Apotheker, HPs newish boss, is taking a hugegamble. He is trying to follow the example of IBM, by reducing HPs dependence on hardwareand pushing up into software and services.

　　一個(gè)問(wèn)題是，在聲明中，惠普對(duì)于如何處理其個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)問(wèn)題，態(tài)度不明朗;對(duì)于計(jì)劃高價(jià)收購(gòu)Autonomy的理由，也沒(méi)能說(shuō)得清楚。另一個(gè)因素是，很多股東看重的是短期利益，惠普的營(yíng)業(yè)額和利潤(rùn)數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)雙雙減少，嚇跑了不少投資者。但最大的問(wèn)題是，惠普上任不久的總裁里奧?阿普賽克所冒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)實(shí)在有點(diǎn)大，他試圖效仿IBM，降低惠普對(duì)計(jì)算機(jī)硬件的依賴，轉(zhuǎn)而主攻計(jì)算機(jī)軟件和服務(wù)。

　　To grasp what HP has in mind, one has to understand the two main currents in the ITindustry. First, nearly any new technology quickly becomes a commodity that is easily copiedand hence not very profitable. This is why IT firms are always trying to move up the stackinto software and services, where margins are higher. Second, the biggest IT firms typicallycontrol what is known as a platform: a digital foundation on which others build theirproducts, such as Microsofts Windows. This allows them to capture a disproportionate shareof the industrys profits.

　　要想了解惠普的意圖，必須先要弄清IT行業(yè)的兩個(gè)主要趨勢(shì)。第一，幾乎所有快速被商品化的新技術(shù)都很容易被對(duì)手模仿，因此利潤(rùn)不多。這也是IT公司總是想著要上移堆棧，進(jìn)入營(yíng)利較高的計(jì)算機(jī)軟件和服務(wù)領(lǐng)域的原因。第二，所謂的計(jì)算機(jī)平臺(tái)往往由最大的IT公司獨(dú)自控制，平臺(tái)是其他公司產(chǎn)品的電子基礎(chǔ)，微軟視窗就是一個(gè)例子。這些大公司因此能夠獲得行業(yè)利潤(rùn)的較大份額。

　　HP seems to have ignored both currents, at least inthe past decade. Carly Fiorina, its boss from 1999to 2005, merged with Compaq, another computer-maker, in a deal worth $25 billion. Mark Hurd, hersuccessor, cut costs but was ousted in 2010 after adust-up over sex and expenses before he could fixthe firms strategy.

　　惠普對(duì)兩種趨勢(shì)均重視不夠，至少過(guò)去10年是這樣。卡莉?菲奧利那在1999-2005年間擔(dān)任惠普總裁，她曾以250億美元的價(jià)格合并了另一家電腦制造商康柏。她的繼任者馬克?赫德對(duì)成本進(jìn)行了削減，但他在2010年因性丑聞和虛報(bào)費(fèi)用等事被免職，也未能對(duì)公司戰(zhàn)略進(jìn)行及時(shí)調(diào)整。

　　That job now falls to Mr Apotheker. The firms PC business is the worlds biggest, but is not asprofitable as HPs other units. What is more, most buyers of HPs machines are consumers,whose demands shift faster and more whimsically than those of corporate customers. So HPintends to turn its PC business into a separate unit and then spin it off.

　　這項(xiàng)重任現(xiàn)在落在了阿普賽克先生的肩上。惠普公司的個(gè)人電腦銷(xiāo)售業(yè)務(wù)全球第一，但營(yíng)利卻不如其他業(yè)務(wù)高。另外，大多數(shù)惠普產(chǎn)品的購(gòu)買(mǎi)者是個(gè)人消費(fèi)者，與公司客戶相比，他們對(duì)產(chǎn)品的需求變化多端，難以把握。因此，惠普希望把他們的個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)先獨(dú)立出來(lái)，然后再?gòu)幕萜展局鸩椒蛛x出去。

　　Buying Autonomy also helps HP to move onto higher-margin terrain: the British firmsoperating margins exceed 40%. But the main reason HP paid a 64% premium for its sharesseems to be that it believes that Autonomys technology could be turned into a platform tohelp companies make sense of their ever-growing pile of data. This includes not onlystructured data , but also the unstructured kind , which now makes up more than 80% of the information that flows through a typicalcompany.

　　購(gòu)買(mǎi) Autonomy也可以幫助惠普跨入營(yíng)利高地，這家英國(guó)公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率超過(guò)40%。但惠普愿以高出市價(jià)64%的價(jià)格購(gòu)買(mǎi)其股份，似乎是因?yàn)椋鼈兿嘈?Autonomy的技術(shù)能夠成為一個(gè)平臺(tái)，以幫助各企業(yè)處理他們?nèi)找媾蛎浀臄?shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。這不僅包括結(jié)構(gòu)化的數(shù)據(jù)，也包括非結(jié)構(gòu)化的數(shù)據(jù)，現(xiàn)在這些數(shù)據(jù)已占到公司信息流總量的80%還要多。

　　Such a platform would allow firms to do some niftythings. A retailer, for instance, might decide howmuch beer to stock based not just on previoussales records, but also on weather forecasts, partychatter on social media and schedules for sportsmatches.

　　這樣一個(gè)平臺(tái)能讓公司更加出色地完成想做的事，比如一個(gè)零售商，在決定啤酒的庫(kù)存量時(shí)，可能不僅要參照它的前期記錄，也要考慮未來(lái)的天氣情況、社會(huì)傳媒的聚會(huì)談話以及體育比賽的日程安排。

　　All this sounds sensible. But establishing a newplatform and ultimately becoming a firm that looks much like IBM is a tall order. Many otherfirms are also jostling to become the main interpreter of corporate data. To reach its goal ofhaving software generate 8-9% of its revenues by 2023, up from less than 3% today, HP willprobably have to make further acquisitions. And its services business is mainly about keeping ITsystems running, not about helping firms reinvent themselves .

　　這些說(shuō)起來(lái)簡(jiǎn)單，但要建立一個(gè)新的平臺(tái)并最終成為一家類(lèi)似IBM的公司并不容易。許多IT公司在企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)處理方面展開(kāi)了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。為了將其軟件收入由現(xiàn)在的 3%提高到2023年的8-9%，惠普也許還要收購(gòu)更多的公司。另外，惠普的服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)主要是保持IT系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行，而不是幫助公司完成自我再造。

　　Given the difficulties, it is not surprising that many shareholders have bolted. But HP and itsnew boss should not be faulted for trying. They have little alternative, if they wish to avoidbecoming a collection of commodity businesses. Technology is a brutal business, says MrApotheker. If you dont innovate and reinvent yourself, you will become obsolete.

　　困難如此之多，許多投資者溜之大吉也就不足為怪。但惠普及其新總裁這樣努力并沒(méi)有過(guò)錯(cuò)。要想不再成為一個(gè)計(jì)算機(jī)商品大賣(mài)場(chǎng)，他們別無(wú)選擇。阿普賽克先生表示：技術(shù)行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非常殘酷，如果你不創(chuàng)新，不能完成自我再造，就只能被淘汰。

　　HPs grand vision

　　惠普的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)

　　WHEN the board of HP, the worlds largestcomputer-maker, unveiled plans to restructure, itexpected the companys shares to suffer; but not to crash by 20%. HPs bosses thoughtinvestors would love their plan to spin off the firms low-margin personal-computer business, but be wary of their plan to buy Autonomy, a British software-maker, for ahandsome $10.3 billion. In fact, they hated both ideas. On August 19th, the day after theannouncement, they wiped $12 billion off HPs market value.

　　惠普這個(gè)世界上最大的電腦制造商，在其董事會(huì)公布重組計(jì)劃時(shí)，就曾預(yù)料其股價(jià)將會(huì)下跌，但沒(méi)想到會(huì)跌20%。惠普老板本以為，他們準(zhǔn)備放棄營(yíng)利較低的個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)的計(jì)劃，會(huì)得到投資者的支持;但對(duì)于以天價(jià)收購(gòu)英國(guó)軟件公司Autonomy的計(jì)劃，投資者會(huì)表示出擔(dān)憂。事實(shí)上，投資者對(duì)這兩項(xiàng)計(jì)劃都不買(mǎi)賬。8月19日，就在他們發(fā)出聲明的第二天，惠普的市值便狂跌了112億美元。

　　One problem was that the announcement left unclear what HP wanted to do with its PC unitand why exactly it intends to pay so much for Autonomy. Another factor was that many of thefirms shareholders are short-termists, who were scared away by lowered revenue and profitforecasts. But the big problem is that Lo Apotheker, HPs newish boss, is taking a hugegamble. He is trying to follow the example of IBM, by reducing HPs dependence on hardwareand pushing up into software and services.

　　一個(gè)問(wèn)題是，在聲明中，惠普對(duì)于如何處理其個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)問(wèn)題，態(tài)度不明朗;對(duì)于計(jì)劃高價(jià)收購(gòu)Autonomy的理由，也沒(méi)能說(shuō)得清楚。另一個(gè)因素是，很多股東看重的是短期利益，惠普的營(yíng)業(yè)額和利潤(rùn)數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)雙雙減少，嚇跑了不少投資者。但最大的問(wèn)題是，惠普上任不久的總裁里奧?阿普賽克所冒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)實(shí)在有點(diǎn)大，他試圖效仿IBM，降低惠普對(duì)計(jì)算機(jī)硬件的依賴，轉(zhuǎn)而主攻計(jì)算機(jī)軟件和服務(wù)。

　　To grasp what HP has in mind, one has to understand the two main currents in the ITindustry. First, nearly any new technology quickly becomes a commodity that is easily copiedand hence not very profitable. This is why IT firms are always trying to move up the stackinto software and services, where margins are higher. Second, the biggest IT firms typicallycontrol what is known as a platform: a digital foundation on which others build theirproducts, such as Microsofts Windows. This allows them to capture a disproportionate shareof the industrys profits.

　　要想了解惠普的意圖，必須先要弄清IT行業(yè)的兩個(gè)主要趨勢(shì)。第一，幾乎所有快速被商品化的新技術(shù)都很容易被對(duì)手模仿，因此利潤(rùn)不多。這也是IT公司總是想著要上移堆棧，進(jìn)入營(yíng)利較高的計(jì)算機(jī)軟件和服務(wù)領(lǐng)域的原因。第二，所謂的計(jì)算機(jī)平臺(tái)往往由最大的IT公司獨(dú)自控制，平臺(tái)是其他公司產(chǎn)品的電子基礎(chǔ)，微軟視窗就是一個(gè)例子。這些大公司因此能夠獲得行業(yè)利潤(rùn)的較大份額。

　　HP seems to have ignored both currents, at least inthe past decade. Carly Fiorina, its boss from 1999to 2005, merged with Compaq, another computer-maker, in a deal worth $25 billion. Mark Hurd, hersuccessor, cut costs but was ousted in 2010 after adust-up over sex and expenses before he could fixthe firms strategy.

　　惠普對(duì)兩種趨勢(shì)均重視不夠，至少過(guò)去10年是這樣。卡莉?菲奧利那在1999-2005年間擔(dān)任惠普總裁，她曾以250億美元的價(jià)格合并了另一家電腦制造商康柏。她的繼任者馬克?赫德對(duì)成本進(jìn)行了削減，但他在2010年因性丑聞和虛報(bào)費(fèi)用等事被免職，也未能對(duì)公司戰(zhàn)略進(jìn)行及時(shí)調(diào)整。

　　That job now falls to Mr Apotheker. The firms PC business is the worlds biggest, but is not asprofitable as HPs other units. What is more, most buyers of HPs machines are consumers,whose demands shift faster and more whimsically than those of corporate customers. So HPintends to turn its PC business into a separate unit and then spin it off.

　　這項(xiàng)重任現(xiàn)在落在了阿普賽克先生的肩上。惠普公司的個(gè)人電腦銷(xiāo)售業(yè)務(wù)全球第一，但營(yíng)利卻不如其他業(yè)務(wù)高。另外，大多數(shù)惠普產(chǎn)品的購(gòu)買(mǎi)者是個(gè)人消費(fèi)者，與公司客戶相比，他們對(duì)產(chǎn)品的需求變化多端，難以把握。因此，惠普希望把他們的個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)先獨(dú)立出來(lái)，然后再?gòu)幕萜展局鸩椒蛛x出去。

　　Buying Autonomy also helps HP to move onto higher-margin terrain: the British firmsoperating margins exceed 40%. But the main reason HP paid a 64% premium for its sharesseems to be that it believes that Autonomys technology could be turned into a platform tohelp companies make sense of their ever-growing pile of data. This includes not onlystructured data , but also the unstructured kind , which now makes up more than 80% of the information that flows through a typicalcompany.

　　購(gòu)買(mǎi) Autonomy也可以幫助惠普跨入營(yíng)利高地，這家英國(guó)公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率超過(guò)40%。但惠普愿以高出市價(jià)64%的價(jià)格購(gòu)買(mǎi)其股份，似乎是因?yàn)椋鼈兿嘈?Autonomy的技術(shù)能夠成為一個(gè)平臺(tái)，以幫助各企業(yè)處理他們?nèi)找媾蛎浀臄?shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。這不僅包括結(jié)構(gòu)化的數(shù)據(jù)，也包括非結(jié)構(gòu)化的數(shù)據(jù)，現(xiàn)在這些數(shù)據(jù)已占到公司信息流總量的80%還要多。

　　Such a platform would allow firms to do some niftythings. A retailer, for instance, might decide howmuch beer to stock based not just on previoussales records, but also on weather forecasts, partychatter on social media and schedules for sportsmatches.

　　這樣一個(gè)平臺(tái)能讓公司更加出色地完成想做的事，比如一個(gè)零售商，在決定啤酒的庫(kù)存量時(shí)，可能不僅要參照它的前期記錄，也要考慮未來(lái)的天氣情況、社會(huì)傳媒的聚會(huì)談話以及體育比賽的日程安排。

　　All this sounds sensible. But establishing a newplatform and ultimately becoming a firm that looks much like IBM is a tall order. Many otherfirms are also jostling to become the main interpreter of corporate data. To reach its goal ofhaving software generate 8-9% of its revenues by 2023, up from less than 3% today, HP willprobably have to make further acquisitions. And its services business is mainly about keeping ITsystems running, not about helping firms reinvent themselves .

　　這些說(shuō)起來(lái)簡(jiǎn)單，但要建立一個(gè)新的平臺(tái)并最終成為一家類(lèi)似IBM的公司并不容易。許多IT公司在企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)處理方面展開(kāi)了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。為了將其軟件收入由現(xiàn)在的 3%提高到2023年的8-9%，惠普也許還要收購(gòu)更多的公司。另外，惠普的服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)主要是保持IT系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行，而不是幫助公司完成自我再造。

　　Given the difficulties, it is not surprising that many shareholders have bolted. But HP and itsnew boss should not be faulted for trying. They have little alternative, if they wish to avoidbecoming a collection of commodity businesses. Technology is a brutal business, says MrApotheker. If you dont innovate and reinvent yourself, you will become obsolete.

　　困難如此之多，許多投資者溜之大吉也就不足為怪。但惠普及其新總裁這樣努力并沒(méi)有過(guò)錯(cuò)。要想不再成為一個(gè)計(jì)算機(jī)商品大賣(mài)場(chǎng)，他們別無(wú)選擇。阿普賽克先生表示：技術(shù)行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非常殘酷，如果你不創(chuàng)新，不能完成自我再造，就只能被淘汰。