The economy Autumn leaves falling

　　經(jīng)濟秋葉落了

　　The growing troubles in the euro zone mean Britainis set for another recession

　　日益嚴(yán)重的歐元區(qū)危機，意味著英國將要面臨下一輪衰退

　　PREPARE for some bad news. The prime minister,David Cameron, told an audience of business leaderson November 21st that shrinking the budget deficitwas proving harder than anyone envisaged. Hiscomments laid the ground for the chancellor, GeorgeOsborne, who makes his autumn statement on the economy and public finances on November29th. The chancellors message is likely to be grim: a downgrade to official growth forecastsfor next year and beyond seems certain. The coalition governments hopes of eliminating thestructural part of the deficit and of capping public debt by the end of the current parliament are in serious doubt.

　　要做好壞消息的準(zhǔn)備。12月21號，英國首相大為卡梅倫告訴場下的各位商界領(lǐng)袖：縮減赤字的難度非常大。在11月29號，財政部長George Osborne會發(fā)表經(jīng)濟和公共財政的演說，卡梅倫的言論為此次演說定下了基調(diào)。財政部長很有可能傳遞負面的消息明后兩年官方經(jīng)濟預(yù)測的下滑在所難免。聯(lián)合政府希望消除經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)問題所帶來的負債，同時希望在本屆議會結(jié)束之前設(shè)置公共債務(wù)的限額，而要做到這些又存在著很多疑問。

　　Bond markets are likely to be forgiving, given the scale of troubles elsewhere. But a failure tohit its fiscal targets would harm the coalition governments credibility. And there is a morepressing worry. Britains strong links with the wretched euro zone mean that its economy isbeing dragged into continent-wide recession . Some Conservative politicians seem tobelieve that Britain stands apart from the euro disaster because it has its own currency. Infact, the economy is increasingly dependent on exports, two-fifths of which are shipped to theeuro zone. There is little spending power at home: consumers are still carrying a lot of debtwhile struggling with weak wage growth and high inflation; public spending is shrinking; andbusiness investment has been sluggish.

　　考慮到這次危機的規(guī)模之大，英國債券市場的問題還可以被原諒。而聯(lián)合政府未能達到財政目標(biāo)，這就使得聯(lián)合政府的公信力受損。英國與歐元區(qū)聯(lián)系甚是緊密，這也意味著英國的經(jīng)濟也必將被拖入這場席卷歐洲的衰退。一些保守政客認為因為英國有獨立的貨幣，所以他們不會席卷到這場風(fēng)暴中。而事實上，英國的經(jīng)濟則越來越倚重出口。多達經(jīng)濟總量的五分之二的貨物通過海運運往歐元區(qū)國家。英國國內(nèi)購買力越來越低。面對低工資和高通貨膨脹，消費者已經(jīng)負債累累。公共支出在縮減，同時，商業(yè)投資也不景氣。

　　Bond markets are likely to be forgiving, given the scale of troubles elsewhere. But a failure tohit its fiscal targets would harm the coalition governments credibility. And there is a morepressing worry. Britains strong links with the wretched euro zone mean that its economy isbeing dragged into continent-wide recession . Some Conservative politicians seem tobelieve that Britain stands apart from the euro disaster because it has its own currency. Infact, the economy is increasingly dependent on exports, two-fifths of which are shipped to theeuro zone. There is little spending power at home: consumers are still carrying a lot of debtwhile struggling with weak wage growth and high inflation; public spending is shrinking; andbusiness investment has been sluggish.

　　更糟糕的是，英國購買了很多的歐元重災(zāi)區(qū)的債務(wù)。英國銀行放款給愛爾蘭，西班牙，意大利，葡萄牙和希臘。截止到六月份，放款總額為3500億美元，相當(dāng)于其GDP的15%。商業(yè)和銀行投放大多數(shù)款項，但是政府的款項也占到10%。同時，政府也間接放出一些款項。6月份，又一筆2100億銀行資產(chǎn)貸款給了法國和德國的銀行，這些錢之后會間接借給意大利和西班牙。

　　Growing anxiety about public finances in Europe has sapped confidence in banks which arebig holders of government bonds. And the rush by European banks to sell bonds of the leastcreditworthy sovereigns has made things worse. European banks are finding it harder torefinance their own debts at reasonable interest rates, and funding costs are rising for Britishbanks too. That will eventually feed through to higher interest rates on loans to companiesand consumers. Banks nervous about euro-zone assets turning sour and keen to preservescarce capital will be cautious about making new loans, which will only add to the recessionaryforces.

　　作為政府債券最大的持有者，銀行對于歐洲公共財政狀況越來越不安。歐洲銀行爭先甩賣低信用度的主權(quán)債券，這也使得如今的狀況變的更加糟糕。在合理的利率范圍內(nèi)，歐洲銀行也意識到為債務(wù)籌措資金越發(fā)困難。同時，在英國，銀行融資成本也隨之水漲船高。而這些最終必將由提升企業(yè)和個人的貸款利率進行填補。面對日益變質(zhì)的歐洲區(qū)資產(chǎn)，銀行界十分緊張，與此同時，他們也希望能夠能保留僅剩下的資產(chǎn)。因此，他們對于新貸款也越發(fā)小心，因為增加貸款這只能加速衰退。

　　Businesses will soon be caught up in this spiral of ever-diminishing confidence. Firms knowthat credit lines cannot be relied upon when banks and financial markets shun all but the safestinvestments. There are already reports that firms are postponing purchases and trimming theirstocks of supplies to conserve cash. Cuts to discretionary spending, such as capital projectsor advertising, will become more common as the euro crisis intensifies and uncertainty andanxiety increase.

　　業(yè)界信心普遍下降，企業(yè)人士不久也會卷入其中。因為銀行和金融市場限制所有貸款，只保留最安全的那部分，因而工廠也意識到不能再依賴信用額度了。有消息稱工廠推遲其購買，削減部分發(fā)行股票，用現(xiàn)鈔保值。由于歐元區(qū)危機加重，以及一些不確定性和不安因素，企業(yè)會越發(fā)頻繁對像資本項目和廣告這類選擇性的花銷進行削減。

　　How far might the economy fall? The central case of the Bank of Englands monetary-policycommittee is that output will be broadly flat in the current quarter and in the first half of 2023,though it thinks a worse outcome is more likely than a better one. Its forecast excludes thepossibility of a big euro-zone blow-up, not because this is improbable but because there is nomeaningful way to calculate its impact. Fear that the euro zone will disintegrate will itselfweigh on the economy.

　　經(jīng)濟衰退還要多久?盡管不好的情況發(fā)生的可能性比較大，英國央行貨幣政策委員會公布的數(shù)據(jù)：產(chǎn)出量本季度和明年一季度會與之前持平。英國的預(yù)測也放大了歐元區(qū)危機爆發(fā)的危機程度。不是因為無法預(yù)測他，而是沒有可行的方法來測算其影響。對于歐元區(qū)的擔(dān)心也加重了對于其自身經(jīng)濟的擔(dān)憂。

　　Absent a complete meltdown, the second dip of a double-dip recession ought to be smallerthan the first, because there are fewer excesses to correct. Britains current-account deficit iscloser to balance. The household savings rate is a healthy 7.2%, which means consumers havea bigger cushion between their income and spending than they did when recession first struckin 2008. There is less capital spending to cut back on: companies are already sitting on piles ofcash. And the flow of capital seeking a haven from the euro crisis will sustain demand forBritish government bonds, for fancy houses, and for other assets deemed to be safer thaneuro-zone banks or bonds. Real household income is likely to rise modestly in 2023 after fallingsharply this year because of high inflation and tax increases, notes Kevin Daly of GoldmanSachs.

　　英國并未和歐元區(qū)完全融合，而且在這次的危機中，英國也沒有什么要糾正的失職失誤。因此，這一輪的衰退應(yīng)該比上一次狀況要好。而且目前的英國賬務(wù)赤字接近于均衡。家庭儲蓄率也達7.2%。相對 2008年的衰退來說，在此健康的利率下，消費者在收入和花銷之間有相對更大的緩沖貨幣。資本支出削減程度也更加有限，而且企業(yè)界現(xiàn)在也存有大量的現(xiàn)金。同時，流動資本也在尋找這輪危機中的避風(fēng)港。資本將會維持對于英國政府債務(wù)，奢華的住宅以及一些其他資產(chǎn)的需求，在這些領(lǐng)域投資要比歐洲銀行的債務(wù)要安全得多。由于高通脹以及稅收的增加，不動產(chǎn)收益講可能在2023年有平穩(wěn)增長。

　　Yet the likely recession will strain public finances. Figures for the first seven months of thefinancial year suggest that the government is roughly on track to meet its borrowing target of￡122 billion for 2011-12. Yet the number of people claimingunemployment benefit has risen each month since March . Many economistsbelieve the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent fiscal watchdog, will take adimmer view of the economys medium-term prospects. That would imply less of the budgetdeficit will be eroded as the economy expands to its full potential, and that more of it istherefore structural.

　　這場衰退有可能限制公共財政支出。2011-12財政年度的前7個月統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示政府已經(jīng)大致完成其借款目標(biāo)1220億英鎊。自3月以來，獲得失業(yè)金的人數(shù)每月都在上升。血多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為獨立的財政監(jiān)督預(yù)算責(zé)任部會對中期經(jīng)濟前景會有更低的預(yù)期。經(jīng)濟會發(fā)揮到最大潛力而且大部分赤字是結(jié)構(gòu)性的，這意味著更少的預(yù)算赤字會壞賬賴賬。

　　This leaves Mr Osborne in an uncomfortable position as he prepares his autumn statement.He has made it clear that he does not regard it as a fiscal event where spending and taxchanges are announced; that will be saved for the budget in March. But it is a political set-piece all the same. So the chancellor will try to knit together a variety of small, fairly cheappolicy strands, such as measures to help small businesses with credit, into a coherent growthstrategy. Given the unfolding catastrophe on Britains doorstep, it is likely to look threadbare.

　　Osbron先生正在準(zhǔn)備秋季演說，而之前的預(yù)計也讓他感到不太舒服。雖然這次演說中會公布支出和稅收變化以及3月份削減的額度，但他想讓別人明白他不會把這次演說當(dāng)成一次財政事件，歸根到底，這是一次政治化決策。財政部長會編織出一系列的小型和低成本措施，比如說幫助一些信用良好的小型企業(yè)制定一個連貫的增值計劃。的確可能有些老生常談了，不過這就是擺在英國面前的現(xiàn)實問題。

　　The economy Autumn leaves falling

　　經(jīng)濟秋葉落了

　　The growing troubles in the euro zone mean Britainis set for another recession

　　日益嚴(yán)重的歐元區(qū)危機，意味著英國將要面臨下一輪衰退

　　PREPARE for some bad news. The prime minister,David Cameron, told an audience of business leaderson November 21st that shrinking the budget deficitwas proving harder than anyone envisaged. Hiscomments laid the ground for the chancellor, GeorgeOsborne, who makes his autumn statement on the economy and public finances on November29th. The chancellors message is likely to be grim: a downgrade to official growth forecastsfor next year and beyond seems certain. The coalition governments hopes of eliminating thestructural part of the deficit and of capping public debt by the end of the current parliament are in serious doubt.

　　要做好壞消息的準(zhǔn)備。12月21號，英國首相大為卡梅倫告訴場下的各位商界領(lǐng)袖：縮減赤字的難度非常大。在11月29號，財政部長George Osborne會發(fā)表經(jīng)濟和公共財政的演說，卡梅倫的言論為此次演說定下了基調(diào)。財政部長很有可能傳遞負面的消息明后兩年官方經(jīng)濟預(yù)測的下滑在所難免。聯(lián)合政府希望消除經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)問題所帶來的負債，同時希望在本屆議會結(jié)束之前設(shè)置公共債務(wù)的限額，而要做到這些又存在著很多疑問。

　　Bond markets are likely to be forgiving, given the scale of troubles elsewhere. But a failure tohit its fiscal targets would harm the coalition governments credibility. And there is a morepressing worry. Britains strong links with the wretched euro zone mean that its economy isbeing dragged into continent-wide recession . Some Conservative politicians seem tobelieve that Britain stands apart from the euro disaster because it has its own currency. Infact, the economy is increasingly dependent on exports, two-fifths of which are shipped to theeuro zone. There is little spending power at home: consumers are still carrying a lot of debtwhile struggling with weak wage growth and high inflation; public spending is shrinking; andbusiness investment has been sluggish.

　　考慮到這次危機的規(guī)模之大，英國債券市場的問題還可以被原諒。而聯(lián)合政府未能達到財政目標(biāo)，這就使得聯(lián)合政府的公信力受損。英國與歐元區(qū)聯(lián)系甚是緊密，這也意味著英國的經(jīng)濟也必將被拖入這場席卷歐洲的衰退。一些保守政客認為因為英國有獨立的貨幣，所以他們不會席卷到這場風(fēng)暴中。而事實上，英國的經(jīng)濟則越來越倚重出口。多達經(jīng)濟總量的五分之二的貨物通過海運運往歐元區(qū)國家。英國國內(nèi)購買力越來越低。面對低工資和高通貨膨脹，消費者已經(jīng)負債累累。公共支出在縮減，同時，商業(yè)投資也不景氣。

　　Bond markets are likely to be forgiving, given the scale of troubles elsewhere. But a failure tohit its fiscal targets would harm the coalition governments credibility. And there is a morepressing worry. Britains strong links with the wretched euro zone mean that its economy isbeing dragged into continent-wide recession . Some Conservative politicians seem tobelieve that Britain stands apart from the euro disaster because it has its own currency. Infact, the economy is increasingly dependent on exports, two-fifths of which are shipped to theeuro zone. There is little spending power at home: consumers are still carrying a lot of debtwhile struggling with weak wage growth and high inflation; public spending is shrinking; andbusiness investment has been sluggish.

　　更糟糕的是，英國購買了很多的歐元重災(zāi)區(qū)的債務(wù)。英國銀行放款給愛爾蘭，西班牙，意大利，葡萄牙和希臘。截止到六月份，放款總額為3500億美元，相當(dāng)于其GDP的15%。商業(yè)和銀行投放大多數(shù)款項，但是政府的款項也占到10%。同時，政府也間接放出一些款項。6月份，又一筆2100億銀行資產(chǎn)貸款給了法國和德國的銀行，這些錢之后會間接借給意大利和西班牙。

　　Growing anxiety about public finances in Europe has sapped confidence in banks which arebig holders of government bonds. And the rush by European banks to sell bonds of the leastcreditworthy sovereigns has made things worse. European banks are finding it harder torefinance their own debts at reasonable interest rates, and funding costs are rising for Britishbanks too. That will eventually feed through to higher interest rates on loans to companiesand consumers. Banks nervous about euro-zone assets turning sour and keen to preservescarce capital will be cautious about making new loans, which will only add to the recessionaryforces.

　　作為政府債券最大的持有者，銀行對于歐洲公共財政狀況越來越不安。歐洲銀行爭先甩賣低信用度的主權(quán)債券，這也使得如今的狀況變的更加糟糕。在合理的利率范圍內(nèi)，歐洲銀行也意識到為債務(wù)籌措資金越發(fā)困難。同時，在英國，銀行融資成本也隨之水漲船高。而這些最終必將由提升企業(yè)和個人的貸款利率進行填補。面對日益變質(zhì)的歐洲區(qū)資產(chǎn)，銀行界十分緊張，與此同時，他們也希望能夠能保留僅剩下的資產(chǎn)。因此，他們對于新貸款也越發(fā)小心，因為增加貸款這只能加速衰退。

　　Businesses will soon be caught up in this spiral of ever-diminishing confidence. Firms knowthat credit lines cannot be relied upon when banks and financial markets shun all but the safestinvestments. There are already reports that firms are postponing purchases and trimming theirstocks of supplies to conserve cash. Cuts to discretionary spending, such as capital projectsor advertising, will become more common as the euro crisis intensifies and uncertainty andanxiety increase.

　　業(yè)界信心普遍下降，企業(yè)人士不久也會卷入其中。因為銀行和金融市場限制所有貸款，只保留最安全的那部分，因而工廠也意識到不能再依賴信用額度了。有消息稱工廠推遲其購買，削減部分發(fā)行股票，用現(xiàn)鈔保值。由于歐元區(qū)危機加重，以及一些不確定性和不安因素，企業(yè)會越發(fā)頻繁對像資本項目和廣告這類選擇性的花銷進行削減。

　　How far might the economy fall? The central case of the Bank of Englands monetary-policycommittee is that output will be broadly flat in the current quarter and in the first half of 2023,though it thinks a worse outcome is more likely than a better one. Its forecast excludes thepossibility of a big euro-zone blow-up, not because this is improbable but because there is nomeaningful way to calculate its impact. Fear that the euro zone will disintegrate will itselfweigh on the economy.

　　經(jīng)濟衰退還要多久?盡管不好的情況發(fā)生的可能性比較大，英國央行貨幣政策委員會公布的數(shù)據(jù)：產(chǎn)出量本季度和明年一季度會與之前持平。英國的預(yù)測也放大了歐元區(qū)危機爆發(fā)的危機程度。不是因為無法預(yù)測他，而是沒有可行的方法來測算其影響。對于歐元區(qū)的擔(dān)心也加重了對于其自身經(jīng)濟的擔(dān)憂。

　　Absent a complete meltdown, the second dip of a double-dip recession ought to be smallerthan the first, because there are fewer excesses to correct. Britains current-account deficit iscloser to balance. The household savings rate is a healthy 7.2%, which means consumers havea bigger cushion between their income and spending than they did when recession first struckin 2008. There is less capital spending to cut back on: companies are already sitting on piles ofcash. And the flow of capital seeking a haven from the euro crisis will sustain demand forBritish government bonds, for fancy houses, and for other assets deemed to be safer thaneuro-zone banks or bonds. Real household income is likely to rise modestly in 2023 after fallingsharply this year because of high inflation and tax increases, notes Kevin Daly of GoldmanSachs.

　　英國并未和歐元區(qū)完全融合，而且在這次的危機中，英國也沒有什么要糾正的失職失誤。因此，這一輪的衰退應(yīng)該比上一次狀況要好。而且目前的英國賬務(wù)赤字接近于均衡。家庭儲蓄率也達7.2%。相對 2008年的衰退來說，在此健康的利率下，消費者在收入和花銷之間有相對更大的緩沖貨幣。資本支出削減程度也更加有限，而且企業(yè)界現(xiàn)在也存有大量的現(xiàn)金。同時，流動資本也在尋找這輪危機中的避風(fēng)港。資本將會維持對于英國政府債務(wù)，奢華的住宅以及一些其他資產(chǎn)的需求，在這些領(lǐng)域投資要比歐洲銀行的債務(wù)要安全得多。由于高通脹以及稅收的增加，不動產(chǎn)收益講可能在2023年有平穩(wěn)增長。

　　Yet the likely recession will strain public finances. Figures for the first seven months of thefinancial year suggest that the government is roughly on track to meet its borrowing target of￡122 billion for 2011-12. Yet the number of people claimingunemployment benefit has risen each month since March . Many economistsbelieve the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent fiscal watchdog, will take adimmer view of the economys medium-term prospects. That would imply less of the budgetdeficit will be eroded as the economy expands to its full potential, and that more of it istherefore structural.

　　這場衰退有可能限制公共財政支出。2011-12財政年度的前7個月統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示政府已經(jīng)大致完成其借款目標(biāo)1220億英鎊。自3月以來，獲得失業(yè)金的人數(shù)每月都在上升。血多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為獨立的財政監(jiān)督預(yù)算責(zé)任部會對中期經(jīng)濟前景會有更低的預(yù)期。經(jīng)濟會發(fā)揮到最大潛力而且大部分赤字是結(jié)構(gòu)性的，這意味著更少的預(yù)算赤字會壞賬賴賬。

　　This leaves Mr Osborne in an uncomfortable position as he prepares his autumn statement.He has made it clear that he does not regard it as a fiscal event where spending and taxchanges are announced; that will be saved for the budget in March. But it is a political set-piece all the same. So the chancellor will try to knit together a variety of small, fairly cheappolicy strands, such as measures to help small businesses with credit, into a coherent growthstrategy. Given the unfolding catastrophe on Britains doorstep, it is likely to look threadbare.

　　Osbron先生正在準(zhǔn)備秋季演說，而之前的預(yù)計也讓他感到不太舒服。雖然這次演說中會公布支出和稅收變化以及3月份削減的額度，但他想讓別人明白他不會把這次演說當(dāng)成一次財政事件，歸根到底，這是一次政治化決策。財政部長會編織出一系列的小型和低成本措施，比如說幫助一些信用良好的小型企業(yè)制定一個連貫的增值計劃。的確可能有些老生常談了，不過這就是擺在英國面前的現(xiàn)實問題。