The aftershocks of crime

　　犯罪余震

　　An idea borrowed from seismology may help topredict criminal activity.

　　從地震學上獲取的靈感或許能預測犯罪行為。

　　LOS ANGELES is one of the most under-policed cities in America.

　　洛杉磯是美國警力最不足的城市之一，

　　With a mere 26 officers for every 10,000 residents, the Los Angeles Police Department needsall the help it can get.

　　每一萬個市民只分配了26名警察，因此洛杉磯警局急需各方支援。

　　That help may be at hand, with a modification of technology used to predict another typeof threat that the city is prone to: the aftershocks from earthquakes. Big earthquakes areunpredictable.

　　支援也許就近在咫尺，只要將一項技術修改一下便可。這項技術原本是用來預測余震的這個城市很容易受到的另一種災難。

　　Once they have happened, however, they are usually followed by further tremors, and thepattern of these is tractable.

　　大地震是無法預測的，但是大地震發生后隨之而來的余震模式卻是可以掌控的。

　　George Mohler, a mathematician at Santa Clara University, in California, thinks somethingsimilar is true of crimes.

　　加利福尼亞州的圣克拉拉大學的數學家喬治默赫勒認為，余震和犯罪有著相似之處。

　　There is often a pattern ofaftercrimes in the wake of an initial one.

　　在初始犯罪后，常會尾隨一種犯罪后效應模式。

　　The similarity with earthquakes intrigued him and he wondered if the mathematicalformulas that seismologists employ to predict aftershocks were applicable to aftercrimes,too.

　　這種和地震的相似性激起了他的興趣，于是他想，如果地震學家應用的預測余震的數學公式應用到犯罪后效應中，又會如何呢?

　　To test this idea, he and a team of researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles,adapted a computer program used by seismologists to calculate the likelihood ofaftershocks.

　　為了測試這一想法，他和一隊來自加利福尼亞大學的研究人員采用了一套地震學家用來計算余震可能性的電腦程序，

　　They then seeded it with actual LAPD data on 2,803 residential burglaries that occurred in an18km-by-18km region of the San Fernando valley, one of the citys largest districts, during2004.

　　輸入了2004年，在圣費爾南多谷中面積為1818km2的區域里發生的2803起住宅爆竊案的警方數據。

　　Using the seismological algorithms, the computer calculated which city blocks were likely toexperience the highest number of burglaries the next day, and thus which 5% of homeswithin the area were at particular risk of being broken into.

　　通過地震學的運算法則，電腦計算出了哪些街區在第二天可能會遭到大批盜竊，因此區域內5%的住宅都冒有很大被盜的風險。

　　In one test the program accurately identified a high-risk portion of the city in which, hadit been adequately patrolled, police could have prevented a quarter of the burglaries thattook place in the whole area that day.

　　在一項測試中，這個程序精確地辨識出了該市的一塊高風險區，而如果巡邏充足，警方本可以在那一天阻止該地區四分之一的盜竊案。

　　In addition to modelling burglary, Dr Mohler examined three gang rivalries in Los Angeles,using data from 1999 to 2002, and discovered that similar patterns emerge from gangviolence as retaliations typically occur within daysand metresof an initial attack.

　　除了用盜竊案做模型，默赫勒用1999到2002年的數據，也檢測了三起洛杉磯的幫派斗爭，并發現了相同的模式：在最初的襲擊之后，幾天內會在鄰近區域很典型地發生復仇暴力。

　　That, too, should help police deploy their limited resources more effectively.

　　這也能幫助警方更有效地部署有限的資源。

　　RoboCop move over, then. ComputerCop is coming.

　　機器戰警已經過時，現在是電腦戰警的時代了。

　　詞語解釋

　　1.predict v.預言;預報

　　It is virtually impossible to predict the futureaccurately.

　　精確預言未來的事實際上是辦不到的。

　　2.technology n.技術;工藝

　　The government saw the introduction of newtechnology as vital.

　　政府認為引進新技術至關重要。

　　3.initial a.開始的;最初的

　　This is a letter paper personalized with his initials.

　　這是一張有他姓名首字母的信紙。

　　4.occur v.發生;存在

　　That plane crash occurred only minutes after take-off.

　　空難在起飛幾分鐘后就發生了。

　　5.calculate v.計算;估計

　　I will calculate your bill for you.

　　我幫您計算賬單。

　　The aftershocks of crime

　　犯罪余震

　　An idea borrowed from seismology may help topredict criminal activity.

　　從地震學上獲取的靈感或許能預測犯罪行為。

　　LOS ANGELES is one of the most under-policed cities in America.

　　洛杉磯是美國警力最不足的城市之一，

　　With a mere 26 officers for every 10,000 residents, the Los Angeles Police Department needsall the help it can get.

　　每一萬個市民只分配了26名警察，因此洛杉磯警局急需各方支援。

　　That help may be at hand, with a modification of technology used to predict another typeof threat that the city is prone to: the aftershocks from earthquakes. Big earthquakes areunpredictable.

　　支援也許就近在咫尺，只要將一項技術修改一下便可。這項技術原本是用來預測余震的這個城市很容易受到的另一種災難。

　　Once they have happened, however, they are usually followed by further tremors, and thepattern of these is tractable.

　　大地震是無法預測的，但是大地震發生后隨之而來的余震模式卻是可以掌控的。

　　George Mohler, a mathematician at Santa Clara University, in California, thinks somethingsimilar is true of crimes.

　　加利福尼亞州的圣克拉拉大學的數學家喬治默赫勒認為，余震和犯罪有著相似之處。

　　There is often a pattern ofaftercrimes in the wake of an initial one.

　　在初始犯罪后，常會尾隨一種犯罪后效應模式。

　　The similarity with earthquakes intrigued him and he wondered if the mathematicalformulas that seismologists employ to predict aftershocks were applicable to aftercrimes,too.

　　這種和地震的相似性激起了他的興趣，于是他想，如果地震學家應用的預測余震的數學公式應用到犯罪后效應中，又會如何呢?

　　To test this idea, he and a team of researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles,adapted a computer program used by seismologists to calculate the likelihood ofaftershocks.

　　為了測試這一想法，他和一隊來自加利福尼亞大學的研究人員采用了一套地震學家用來計算余震可能性的電腦程序，

　　They then seeded it with actual LAPD data on 2,803 residential burglaries that occurred in an18km-by-18km region of the San Fernando valley, one of the citys largest districts, during2004.

　　輸入了2004年，在圣費爾南多谷中面積為1818km2的區域里發生的2803起住宅爆竊案的警方數據。

　　Using the seismological algorithms, the computer calculated which city blocks were likely toexperience the highest number of burglaries the next day, and thus which 5% of homeswithin the area were at particular risk of being broken into.

　　通過地震學的運算法則，電腦計算出了哪些街區在第二天可能會遭到大批盜竊，因此區域內5%的住宅都冒有很大被盜的風險。

　　In one test the program accurately identified a high-risk portion of the city in which, hadit been adequately patrolled, police could have prevented a quarter of the burglaries thattook place in the whole area that day.

　　在一項測試中，這個程序精確地辨識出了該市的一塊高風險區，而如果巡邏充足，警方本可以在那一天阻止該地區四分之一的盜竊案。

　　In addition to modelling burglary, Dr Mohler examined three gang rivalries in Los Angeles,using data from 1999 to 2002, and discovered that similar patterns emerge from gangviolence as retaliations typically occur within daysand metresof an initial attack.

　　除了用盜竊案做模型，默赫勒用1999到2002年的數據，也檢測了三起洛杉磯的幫派斗爭，并發現了相同的模式：在最初的襲擊之后，幾天內會在鄰近區域很典型地發生復仇暴力。

　　That, too, should help police deploy their limited resources more effectively.

　　這也能幫助警方更有效地部署有限的資源。

　　RoboCop move over, then. ComputerCop is coming.

　　機器戰警已經過時，現在是電腦戰警的時代了。

　　詞語解釋

　　1.predict v.預言;預報

　　It is virtually impossible to predict the futureaccurately.

　　精確預言未來的事實際上是辦不到的。

　　2.technology n.技術;工藝

　　The government saw the introduction of newtechnology as vital.

　　政府認為引進新技術至關重要。

　　3.initial a.開始的;最初的

　　This is a letter paper personalized with his initials.

　　這是一張有他姓名首字母的信紙。

　　4.occur v.發生;存在

　　That plane crash occurred only minutes after take-off.

　　空難在起飛幾分鐘后就發生了。

　　5.calculate v.計算;估計

　　I will calculate your bill for you.

　　我幫您計算賬單。